Macron should stop talking Turkey because Turkey will just keep talking back

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For Emmanuel Macron, the moment of truth is approaching at a rate of knots. The French president has again fired off rhetorical broadsides at his Turkish counterpart over the crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean. But words are not going to break Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s bones, and Macron will struggle to build an international consensus to use the economic sticks, much less the military stones to force a Turkish retreat.

The French leader’s verbal volleys have already lost a certain je ne sais quoi due to repetition. At Thursday’s gathering in Corsica of the leaders of the MED7 — France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus and Malta — Macron called for European countries to establish “red lines” for Turkish provocations.

But we’ve already heard this before. Indeed, only a couple of week ago, Macron was claiming to have already drawn those red lines, and boasting that Turkey would respect actions, not words. But his actions thus far — whether participating in military exercises in the troubled waters or hosting summits — have only earned him more scorn in Ankara.

The Turkish foreign ministry, no slouch at sharp rhetoric, responded to the French president’s latest salvo with an enfilade of its own: Macron, it said, should quit trying “to give lessons by speaking pedantically with his old colonial reflexes”. Turkey conducted military exercises of its own in northern Cyprus last week: they were dubbed “Mediterranean Storm”.

This leaves Macron with two options: put up, or shut up. He can send more French warships to waters already teeming with naval activity. (Oh look, the Russians have turned up, too.) But it is hard to imagine this will force Erdoğan into recalling his naval and exploration vessels.

France can’t hope for much military support from Nato partners against a fellow member. Though the US has eased a long-standing American embargo on arms sales to Cyprus, it isn’t likely to endorse sterner measures against Erdoğan, who has President Donald Trump’s ear.

Macron can keep up with his philippics against Erdoğan, but these have already passed the point of diminishing returns. The Greeks and Cypriots will soon tire of French expressions of solidarity, and Ankara might enjoy bandying more words with Paris.

And what of Berlin? Germany currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency, and Chancellor Angela Merkel is trying to bring about a negotiated solution to the dispute between Turkey and Greece. Though the EU has ...
11 Sep 2020 5AM English South Africa Business News · News

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