SHIRLEY DE VILLIERS: Will we really have a vaccine by November?
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US President Donald Trump has never been one to let the truth get in the way of his personal ambition. So, faced with the very real risk of being a one-term president, it’s unsurprising that he’d try pin his political salvation on a coronavirus vaccine — or, at least, on the promise of one.
“You could have a very big surprise coming up ... The people of the world will be happy,” Trump told journalists on Monday. “We’re going to have a vaccine very soon, maybe even before a very special date. You know what date I’m talking about.”
It’s not the first time he’s raised hopes that a vaccine will be rolled out before the November 3 election either. On Friday, he reportedly said a vaccine could be ready “maybe even before November 1” or “sometime in the month of October”. And the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) informed state authorities last week that they should be ready to distribute a vaccine by November 1.
Only, it’s probably all wishful thinking.
As Dhruv Khullar notes in the New Yorker (, Larry Corey, who is co-ordinating clinical trials for federally-backed vaccines, puts the timeline at about seven months from July – so February next year. Optimistically, it could be December.
Moncef Slaoui, head of the improbably named “Operation Warp Speed” vaccine programme, says there’s a “very, very low chance” of approval before election day.
And, of nine companies rushing to roll out a vaccine in the US, only Pfizer has suggested it may have results from late-stage tests in October, Ed Silverman writes on health news site Stat ( But even that is far from certain. And, needless to say, those results are still a substantial step behind distribution of any vaccine.
So it’s Shrodinger’s vaccine: at once ready to roll, and not.
It’s also vintage Trump: should a drug be ready ahead of the election, he’ll claim all the credit. If not, he’ll lay the blame at the feet of the regulatory authority. He’s already laid the groundwork for that: in yet another unhinged tweet last month, he accused the “deep state” Federal Drug Administration (FDA) of intentionally slowing vaccine approval until after the election.
It is, of course, cynical politicking, but it also raises the fear that political expediency is trumping public safety.
As Stat reports, a new poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation shows 62% of Americans ...
“You could have a very big surprise coming up ... The people of the world will be happy,” Trump told journalists on Monday. “We’re going to have a vaccine very soon, maybe even before a very special date. You know what date I’m talking about.”
It’s not the first time he’s raised hopes that a vaccine will be rolled out before the November 3 election either. On Friday, he reportedly said a vaccine could be ready “maybe even before November 1” or “sometime in the month of October”. And the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) informed state authorities last week that they should be ready to distribute a vaccine by November 1.
Only, it’s probably all wishful thinking.
As Dhruv Khullar notes in the New Yorker (, Larry Corey, who is co-ordinating clinical trials for federally-backed vaccines, puts the timeline at about seven months from July – so February next year. Optimistically, it could be December.
Moncef Slaoui, head of the improbably named “Operation Warp Speed” vaccine programme, says there’s a “very, very low chance” of approval before election day.
And, of nine companies rushing to roll out a vaccine in the US, only Pfizer has suggested it may have results from late-stage tests in October, Ed Silverman writes on health news site Stat ( But even that is far from certain. And, needless to say, those results are still a substantial step behind distribution of any vaccine.
So it’s Shrodinger’s vaccine: at once ready to roll, and not.
It’s also vintage Trump: should a drug be ready ahead of the election, he’ll claim all the credit. If not, he’ll lay the blame at the feet of the regulatory authority. He’s already laid the groundwork for that: in yet another unhinged tweet last month, he accused the “deep state” Federal Drug Administration (FDA) of intentionally slowing vaccine approval until after the election.
It is, of course, cynical politicking, but it also raises the fear that political expediency is trumping public safety.
As Stat reports, a new poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation shows 62% of Americans ...