ANC shrinking, MK's KZN test, and which parties can still win outright: McLaughlin on LGEs '26

On the eve of the vote, Norsira co-founder Sean McLaughlin told BizNews his firm had run every metro and local council through its scenario model, and found fewer than a quarter of them safe. He walked through how Durban could end up with a DA mayor backed by the ANC and IFP, why Joburg's DA surge might still land in opposition, and where MK could carve deep into the ANC's base in southern Mpumalanga. He also flagged the quieter contests, from Makhanda's collapse to Beaufort West's lesson for Gayton McKenzie, and the IFP's run of by-election wins that made it his dark horse.