The Xchange Platform Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

Two points about the uncertain weather outlook and its impact on South Africa’s agriculture over the coming months

Loading player...
Firstly, there’s a growing likelihood that we’re entering the onset of an El Niño event. This will likely begin around October 2027, which is the start of the 2026-27 summer season. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) highlighted this in their report today, 1 May 2026. Depending on the severity of the El Niño, it will likely negatively affect agricultural activity in South Africa and across Southern Africa.

Secondly, South Africa has experienced favourable rainfall at the start of the 2026-27 winter crop season. However, we may encounter below-normal rainfall later in the season, which could impact the production of wheat, barley, canola and oats this year.

Overall, in the coming weeks and months, we’ll need to closely monitor weather developments. The outlook is concerning across the board.
3 May English South Africa Investing · Food

Other recent episodes

South Africa’s farming fortunes are positive at the start of 2026

The South African farming sector had a broadly positive start to 2026. This is notwithstanding the challenges posed by foot-and-mouth disease in cattle, African swine fever in the pig industry, and floods in the northeastern regions of South Africa at the start of the year. Still, higher economic activity across…
17 Jun 10 min

Recent floods are another headwind for South Africa’s agricultural growth

We are likely in another year of mixed fortunes in South Africa’s agriculture. At an aggregate level, we believe that the sector is likely to see some growth this year. However, the subsector view will show significant divergence, as various parts of the sector face an array of pressures. One…
20 May 7 min
All episodes