The Xchange Platform Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

Two points about the uncertain weather outlook and its impact on South Africa’s agriculture over the coming months

Loading player...
Firstly, there’s a growing likelihood that we’re entering the onset of an El Niño event. This will likely begin around October 2027, which is the start of the 2026-27 summer season. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) highlighted this in their report today, 1 May 2026. Depending on the severity of the El Niño, it will likely negatively affect agricultural activity in South Africa and across Southern Africa.

Secondly, South Africa has experienced favourable rainfall at the start of the 2026-27 winter crop season. However, we may encounter below-normal rainfall later in the season, which could impact the production of wheat, barley, canola and oats this year.

Overall, in the coming weeks and months, we’ll need to closely monitor weather developments. The outlook is concerning across the board.
3 May English South Africa Investing · Food

Other recent episodes

The impact of snowfall on South Africa's agriculture

I am in Pretoria, and we obviously don’t have snowfall here. But I am following the snowfall issue in parts of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the Free State, amongst other regions of South Africa. From an agricultural perspective, I am more concerned about its impact on livestock – cattle,…
12 Aug 4 min

A mild rise in tariffs in the US and its impact on SA agriculture

The U.S. government has raised tariffs against several countries under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, on the Acts, Policies, and Practices of 60 Economies Related to the Failure of Each Economy to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Labour[1]…
24 Jul 5 min
All episodes