Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
These are three major challenges facing SA agriculture at the start of July
The start of July presented three challenges whose impact will become clearer in the weeks ahead. Firstly, in the northern regions of South Africa, particularly in Limpopo, the potato crop has suffered losses because of frost after an unusually cold spell in the region. The most affected crops are the…
La Niña prospects in the upcoming 2024/25 season are a welcome development
After a challenging El Niño induced drought season in 2023/24 summer, South Africa’s agriculture may get a relief in the upcoming 2024/25 summer season. Early indications of weather prospects are encouraging, showing a firm likelihood of a La Niña occurrence. The International Research Institute for Climate Change and Society at…
South Africa’s agricultural economic performance in the first half of 2024 is mixed
I view South Africa’s agricultural economic performance in the first half of 2024 as mixed. One can broadly categorise our farming economy into three subsectors: horticulture, livestock and field crops. Horticulture — fruits and vegetables — had a reasonably positive start to the year, benefiting from improved dam levels for…
South Africa's summer grains and oilseed production estimate lifted mildly
South Africa's summer grains and oilseed harvest is in full swing nationwide, and some crops are nearly complete. Thus, the crop size estimates we have at hand are unlikely to change much and possibly represent an actual picture of the harvest. For example, this afternoon, the Crop Estimates Committee lifted…
Achieving inclusive growth in South Africa's agriculture under the Government of National Unity
The SA agriculture sector is not immune to politics. Agriculture is a vital sector of the economy. This explains why it earned special attention in the National Development Plan (NDP), with an entire chapter, Chapter Six, dedicated to it. Recently, there have also been pragmatic plans such as the Agriculture…
SA sees a 20% rise in agricultural trade surplus in the first quarter of 2024
The collaboration between Transnet, organised business and agriculture sector stakeholders to improve efficiency at SA ports must go on. Efficient logistics are the lifeblood of SA agriculture and other exporting sectors of the economy. Admittedly, the deciduous fruit industry faced many challenges at the Port of Cape Town at the…
SA’s agricultural fortunes improved in the first quarter of 2024
After publishing a sharp contraction of -12,2% year-on-year in 2023 of the agricultural gross value-added performance, Statistics South Africa revised the figures to a mild contraction of -4,8% year-on-year. This revised figure is roughly in line with the expectations of various researchers, most notably the Bureau for Food and Agricultural…
SA's summer grains and oilseed production estimate slightly lowered
We appreciate that the minds of many South Africans are on national elections matters, but food matters remain vital in the midst of all. Thus, reflecting on the latest Crop Estimates Committee's (CEC) forecasts for the 2023/24 summer crop production season is valuable. This is a fourth production estimate for…
Jobs in South African farming sector
While South Africa's agriculture has had a rough start to the year, characterised by El Niño-induced drought, the employment conditions remain encouraging. The data recently released by Statistics South Africa shows that employment in primary agriculture lifted by 6% year-on-year to 941,000 in the first quarter of 2024. This is…
South Africa ends an excellent maize export season
April marked the end of South Africa's 2023/24 marketing year for maize. This marketing year corresponds with the 2022/23 production season, as the crop harvested mid-year in 2023 was marketed from then through to the end of April 2024. According to data from the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), the 2022/23…
SA agriculture should explore trade opportunities within BRICS+
Export opportunities for South Africa's agricultural products are opening up within BRICS+ countries. Over the past two years, China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have widened market access for various agricultural products from South Africa. Admittedly, Egypt and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have recently joined the BRICS+…
South Africa's summer crop production estimate has been lifted mildly
Many, including myself, may have been a bit pessimistic about the 2023/24 summer crop growing conditions when we signalled a potential further downward revision of the harvest estimate this month. The data released last week by the Crop Estimates Committee showed mild upward adjustments in the crop size from last…
Farming for 30 years in a democratic South Africa
There are divergent views about the effectiveness and extent to which South Africa's agricultural policies have been implemented. Regardless of how experts feel about the capacity of the state and the policy stance of the South African government since the dawn of democracy, the one undeniable fact is that the…
Recent rains in South Africa will improve grazing veld and winter crops
South Africa has experienced two months of extremely dry and hot weather — February and March. The impact of harsh weather conditions on agriculture across the country is visible through crop failures. The 2023/24 summer grain and oilseed production is down 21% year-on-year, estimated at 15.8 million tonnes. We are…
SA red meat and wool exports are recovering
The past two years presented major challenges for the South African livestock industry. The spread of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) and higher feed costs were the two major factors that weighed on their business. As farmers, various feedlots, and the government worked to control the spread of the FMD, the…
SA starts its winter crop season with some uncertainty about the weather outlook
This month, we will have farmers in the Western Cape likely begin to prepare the soil for the 2024/25 winter crop production season by the end of April into May. Other major winter crop-producing provinces, such as Free State, Limpopo and the Northern Cape, will likely start around the end…
South Africa’s summer crop production prospects remain bleak
Since the release of the previous report of South Africa's Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) at the end of February 2024, the weather conditions across the country have remained unfavourable. Thus, we are not surprised that the CEC further lowered its production forecasts for South Africa's summer grain and oilseeds this…
The global grain and oilseeds supplies remain plentiful, but the drought in South Africa will still hurt
While the summer grain and oilseeds production prospects for the 2023/24 season seem bleak in Southern Africa because of the excessive dryness and heatwave, the global production conditions remain reasonably optimistic. On March 14, the International Grains Council (IGC) released its monthly update of the 2023/24 global grain and oilseeds…
South Africa’s food inflation risks amid the drought
The damaging effects of persistent dryness and heatwave in South Africa's summer crop-growing regions have raised concerns about a possible rise in consumer food inflation in the coming months. With South Africa's food price inflation averaging 11% in 2023 (from 9.5% in 2022, 6.5% in 2021, and 4.8% in 2020),…
Southern Africa’s agriculture is struggling with persistent dryness and extreme heatwave
South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe have recently published reports indicating a potential decline in grain harvest because of intense El Niño-induced dryness. These developments could put the entire Southern African maize supply chain at risk, with Zambia and South Africa hard hit by heatwaves and dryness. The neighbouring small producers…