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NOW Ep124: A crude awakening for inflation?

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Interest rate cuts were meant to define 2026. Now, markets are bracing for hikes. In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Investec’s Chief Economists Annabel Bishop and Phil Shaw examine how the energy shock is forcing central banks to reconsider their path. From London to Pretoria, policymakers face a familiar dilemma: tighten into slowing growth, or risk letting inflation take hold. Guest host Neo Ralefeta explores the implications for global growth and what it means for South Africa, from currency volatility to fuel supply risks and consumer costs.

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Chapters
  • 00:00 Introduction
  • 01:42 How has the Middle East conflict changed the global macroeconomic landscape?
  • 03:28 What’s the difference between the 2022 oil price shock and now?
  • 04:36 Other commodities that should concern the global economy?
  • 05:27 What is the immediate impact of the Middle East conflict on SA’s economy?
  • 07:21 What happens if the war ends today?
  • 09:51 What if the war doesn’t last a few weeks?
  • 11:19 How do central bankers respond to stagflation environment?
  • 12:36 Could there be divergent responses from central banks?
  • 15:24 SA focus on consumers, business and government
  • 20:25 What is the single biggest risk to the global economic outlook?
  • 21:10 What can consumers and businesses look forward to in the future?
31 Mar English South Africa Business · Investing

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