NOW Ep123: Middle East conflict | Counting the cost of disruption
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Markets are sending a surprisingly calm signal in the face of escalating conflict with Iran. Oil prices are rising, supply chains are under pressure, and recession risks are quietly ticking higher, yet equities remain relatively steady.
In the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs is joined by Investec experts in SA and the UK - Callum Macpherson, Phil Shaw and Chris Holdsworth - to unpack what’s really at play.
The conversation explores what happens if the conflict drags on for longer, what key indicators markets are watching and what risks to the global economy are already emerging.
Read more on www.investec.com/now
In the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs is joined by Investec experts in SA and the UK - Callum Macpherson, Phil Shaw and Chris Holdsworth - to unpack what’s really at play.
The conversation explores what happens if the conflict drags on for longer, what key indicators markets are watching and what risks to the global economy are already emerging.
Read more on www.investec.com/now
Chapters
- 00:00 Introduction
- 01:11 Oil price fluctuations - genuine supply disruption or market pricing geopolitical uncertainty?
- 03:26 What damage has already been done to the global economy?
- 04:43 Do investors see the disruption as temporary?
- 05:50 If conflict is prolonged, what would be the first risks likely to emerge in financial markets?
- 06:54 Are markets underestimating the economic risks?
- 07:58 Does oil reserve release meaningfully stabilise the markets?
- 09:14 How might damage to infrastructure play out in the oil market?
- 10:30 How quickly do energy shocks like this feed into global inflation?
- 11:35 Where do investors typically find resilience during energy shocks?
- 12:54 Could the war delay South Africa’s expected economic recovery?
- 13:29 How high could petrol prices in SA go?
- 13:45 Could the higher commodity prices provide any offsetting benefits for SA?
- 14:19 Does the conflict raise inflation risks and potential hike in rates in SA?
- 14:45 If the conflict continues for weeks, what would change materially from a macroeconomic perspective?
- 15:59 If conflict continues for months how would the macroeconomic picture begin to shift?
- 16:59 If conflict continues where would investors feel the pressure first?
- 18:09 What will the impact on the US economy be?
- 18:57 How disruptive could infrastructure damage be for global supply?
- 20:05 One indicator to watch closely?
