Investec Investec Focus Radio SA

NOW Ep121: Budget Speech 2026 | What’s at stake?

Loading player...
South Africa’s 2026 Budget arrives at a pivotal moment. Debt is hovering near 78% of GDP. Growth is forecast at just 1.5%. Debt-servicing costs absorb around 5% of GDP. And yet, bond yields have fallen, sentiment has improved and S&P maintains a positive outlook.

Is this genuine fiscal stabilisation or simply a window of opportunity?
In the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs sits down with Investec’s Chief Economist Annabel Bishop and Treasury Economist Tertia Jacobs to unpack:
• Whether debt has truly peaked
• How meaningful the commodity revenue windfall is
• The risk of further “stealth” tax pressure on households
• Municipal reform and infrastructure momentum
• What it would take to secure a credit-rating upgrade

Read more on www.investec.com/now
Chapters
  • 00:00 Introduction
  • 01:40 Is this the beginning of stabilisation?
  • 03:10 Is growth now the binding constraint on fiscal consolidation?
  • 05:25 What are the numbers that matter most in this Budget?
  • 07:37 How material could the revenue windfall be?
  • 09:21 How could Treasury best use this windfall?
  • 11:07 Has fiscal slippage become the default trend?
  • 13:07 What would this Budget need to demonstrate to strengthen the case for an upgrade?
  • 15:17 Can households absorb further stealth tax increases?
  • 16:52 How important is progress at the municipal level?
  • 18:39 How exposed is the fiscal framework to renewed wage pressures?
14 Feb English South Africa Business · Investing

Other recent episodes

What Next? Bridging the trust gap

In this episode of What Next?, Professor Mike Kenny (Cambridge) and Jacinta Koolmatrie examine the breakdown of trust between communities and institutions. They discuss how centralised governance and economic shifts have driven local grievances, and argue that rebuilding trust requires sharing power, working at community pace, and supporting locally led…
2 Apr 52 min

NOW Ep124: A crude awakening for inflation?

Interest rate cuts were meant to define 2026. Now, markets are bracing for hikes. In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Investec’s Chief Economists Annabel Bishop and Phil Shaw examine how the energy shock is forcing central banks to reconsider their path. From London to Pretoria, policymakers face a familiar…
31 Mar 24 min

Macro Monday Ep110: Little sign of a near-term end to the war

With little sign of an early resolution to the war in the Middle East, supply constraints on commodities such as oil, gas, and helium may well endure. Chris Holdsworth Chief Investment Strategist, at Investec Wealth & Investment International notes that fuel prices likely to feed through quickly into consumer inflation,…
30 Mar 8 min

What Next? | Making the transition investable

Clean and green growth has moved from ambition to execution, but the challenge is one of pace. Investment conditions are key: predictable rules, credible pathways, and coordination across value chains, finance and government. This episode of What Next? Leadership Conversations for a Better Future, Helena Norrman, Marina Grossi, and Sang-Hyup…
27 Mar 35 min

Everything Counts | Episode 44: What the new 2026 tax allowances mean for you?

The new tax year is here, and the 2026 Budget Speech introduced important changes that could reshape how South Africans save, invest, and plan for retirement. In this episode of Everything Counts, host Motheo Khoaripe sits down with Vumi Dludlu, Investec financial adviser, and Johan Loubser, head of adviser enablement…
23 Mar 18 min
All episodes