STANLIB STANLIB Podcasts

US labour market data shows softening, while SA’s electricity generation stabilises

--:--
A consistent message is coming through latest US labour market data releases: labour market conditions are softening as high interest rates are having an impact. Although the US added 206,000 jobs in June, more than expected, many are being generated in non-cyclical sectors like government, education and health care. The unemployment rate is now 4.1% and seems to be edging higher. We believe the US Federal Reserve may be able to consider cutting interest rates by 25 bps at its September FOMC meeting.
It has been more than 100 days since SA experienced load shedding. The Electricity Availability Factor (EAF) has held above 60% for over two months and although unplanned maintenance is still significant, it appears to be holding at a relatively low level. However, to grow the economy faster than 1-1.5% a year, SA needs more electricity capacity. Lack of sufficient power generation remains a key hindrance to the country’s growth ambitions. Click here to listen to the podcast.
8 Jul English South Africa Investing · Business News

Other recent episodes

Encouraging trends are evident in latest US, European inflation data

US core PCE inflation for July, at 2.6% y/y, was welcomed because it shows inflation is under control, although it still above the US Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. In Europe, consumer inflation has moderated to 2.2% y/y, close to the European Central Bank’s target of 2%, which may prompt…
2 Sep 9 min

SA’s inflation slows more than expected while US Fed flags looming rate cuts

SA’s headline Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) rate for July was surprisingly subdued, slowing to 4.6% from 5.1% in June. This reflects a slightly lower than expected electricity tariff hike and a slowdown in food price increases, as well as fuel price cuts. The slowing inflation trend makes it more likely…
26 Aug 8 min

US data points to start of the interest rate cutting cycle

US data released this past week points to less concern about inflation and more concern about the labour market. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%, and the forward guidance is a more confident outlook for inflation, with the Fed comfortable of reaching its inflation…
5 Aug 8 min

US Q2 GDP growth stronger than expected, while SA’s inflation rate softens

US GDP growth in Q2 2024 was 2.8% q/q, well above expectations for 1.9%. About half of this came from growth in inventories and government spending pre-election, which is not necessarily sustainable. Since there is evidence that consumer demand is softening, the underlying dynamic is that US growth is easing…
29 Jul 9 min
All episodes