Recent rains in South Africa will improve grazing veld and winter crops

Loading player...
South Africa has experienced two months of extremely dry and hot weather —
February and March. The impact of harsh weather conditions on agriculture across
the country is visible through crop failures. The 2023/24 summer grain and oilseed
production is down 21% year-on-year, estimated at 15.8 million tonnes.

We are now at an advanced stage of crop development where there would be
minimal to no improvement, even if it rains. Indeed, if one reflects on the past few
days, we have received some excellent rainfalls in various regions of South Africa,
but this has had minimal benefit on crops.

The soil moisture is enhanced, but this will unlikely improve our summer grain and
oilseed production outlook. However, the grazing veld for the livestock will be
improved somewhat.

The map below illustrates the increased soil moisture levels in the central and
eastern regions of South Africa following the recent rains. The improved moisture will help in the winter crop season, which starts at the end of this month in most regions of the country.

Regarding summer grain and oilseed production prospects, South Africa is in a
better condition than the rest of the southern African region, where there are massive crop failures and countries have to rely on grain imports.

South Africa has sufficient grain for domestic consumption; if the forecast crop
materialises, we hope it does.

Listen to the podcast for more insights.

My writing on agricultural economic matters is available on my blog:
https://wandilesihlobo.com/

Podcast production by Lwandiso Gwarubana, Richard Humphries, and Sam Mkokeli
22 Apr English South Africa Investing · Food

Other recent episodes

SA sees robust agricultural exports

I am starting to believe that South Africa’s 2024 agricultural exports may reach a new record high and surpass the 2023 record level of US$13, 2 billion. The better prices and output in various fruits, red meat, wool, and wine will be the major driver of the improvement in exports…
13 Dec 13 min

There is rising optimism in South Africa’s farming sector

We continue to observe the rising optimism in South Africa’s farming and agribusiness sectors. For example, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI), a sentiment indicator in the sector, increased by 10 points from Q3 to 58 in Q4. This is the second consecutive improvement, placing the ACI at its highest…
9 Dec 15 min

South Africa eases a path for possible maize imports from the US

South Africa’s decision to ease possible maize imports from the U.S. is not necessarily bad. It is a “safety option” in recognition that our white maize supplies are tight. We also face strong demand from broader Southern Africa, whose maize production is down massively because of the drought earlier this…
1 Dec 16 min

The easing agricultural trade friction in SACU is crucial

The Southern African region has experienced agricultural trade friction in the past few years. Namibia and Botswana placed a ban on the imports of South African vegetables and citrus. Simply put, the rationale of both Namibia and Botswana was that the import ban ensures that their domestic producers are not…
24 Nov 12 min

SA's agricultural employment improves

While the 2023-24 mid-summer drought has been the central theme of the downbeat performance of South Africa's agriculture this year, we see a welcome positive change in the jobs data. Statistics South Africa data show that primary agriculture employment improved by 4% from the previous quarter to 935k jobs in…
19 Nov 12 min