Stock Watch - Stock picks — Sasol and oil
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Gerbrand Smit from N-e-F-G Fund Managers chose Sasol as his stock pick of the day and Gary Booysen from Rand Swiss chose Brent Crude oil.
Smit said: ""I'm going for Sasol, it had troubles for quite some time, we know that it had lots of Louisiana project problems over the last while. I think most of this bad news is priced into them. The Oil price is still very cheap, if you look at Sasol through the cycle you're looking at about a 4.5 PE multiple and it's a good company in South Africa. It used to be one of the best cashflow companies, it used to be one of the best dividend payers etc. They took on a huge project that's hurt the balance sheet a little bit and stopping dividends for now, but I think that's fine. You're going to see cash flow coming in this year again, next year it will probably be quite cash positive and then starting to pay off debt and then over three, four or five year period I think you can double your money in this one."
Booysen said: "I'm just going to buy a pure oil contract at the moment. If you look at what happened today, we had the Saudi Energy Minister coming out on Monday and deliberately actually saying the idea that oil is down as much as it is based on the coronavirus is crazy. Look at what happened with SARS virus there was almost no disruption to demand over in the 2003 outbreak and he's saying this looks very overdone, demand is not going to evaporate overnight. At the same time we had strikes against the US Embassy in Baghdad on Monday where they actually made contact and there was some attempt earlier in the week. I think the issues in the Middle East are not going to go away. So the way that we want to play it is essentially an option where you'd put down a premium and you if the oil price did get a lot weaker, your entire risk is your option premium and then put a strike some way up at like $80/$90 a barrel and look at it as a one and a half year call option. Just say, let's see if something goes dramatically wrong in the M
Smit said: ""I'm going for Sasol, it had troubles for quite some time, we know that it had lots of Louisiana project problems over the last while. I think most of this bad news is priced into them. The Oil price is still very cheap, if you look at Sasol through the cycle you're looking at about a 4.5 PE multiple and it's a good company in South Africa. It used to be one of the best cashflow companies, it used to be one of the best dividend payers etc. They took on a huge project that's hurt the balance sheet a little bit and stopping dividends for now, but I think that's fine. You're going to see cash flow coming in this year again, next year it will probably be quite cash positive and then starting to pay off debt and then over three, four or five year period I think you can double your money in this one."
Booysen said: "I'm just going to buy a pure oil contract at the moment. If you look at what happened today, we had the Saudi Energy Minister coming out on Monday and deliberately actually saying the idea that oil is down as much as it is based on the coronavirus is crazy. Look at what happened with SARS virus there was almost no disruption to demand over in the 2003 outbreak and he's saying this looks very overdone, demand is not going to evaporate overnight. At the same time we had strikes against the US Embassy in Baghdad on Monday where they actually made contact and there was some attempt earlier in the week. I think the issues in the Middle East are not going to go away. So the way that we want to play it is essentially an option where you'd put down a premium and you if the oil price did get a lot weaker, your entire risk is your option premium and then put a strike some way up at like $80/$90 a barrel and look at it as a one and a half year call option. Just say, let's see if something goes dramatically wrong in the M