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Investec India - UK Economic Crisis and its impact on India with Mr Philip Shaw,

Last week saw continued turmoil in financial markets, culminating in the Bank of England acting with an (up to) £65bn emergency intervention, in an attempt to calm domestic markets and restore financial stability. This was in response to the reaction in longer-dated gilt markets – particularly at the 30-year maturity – to Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-Budget.

The biggest tax-cutting spree in 50 years, to be funded by extra borrowing, the mini-Budget been questioned considering the backdrop of spiralling inflation, and markets have let their feelings be known. 30-year gilt yields surpassed 5% early yesterday morning, the highest since 2002.

As such the Bank of England stepped in, which seemed to have the desired effect, pushing down gilt yields at the long end of the curve. 30-year gilt yields have fallen to 3.93%, an intra-day swing of well over 100 basis points.

The quantitative easing has had the desired effect, but it only buys time to deal with liquidity issues. We question what will happen come 14 October, when the Bank of England has said this bond-buying spree will end.

We hosted Mr Philip Shaw, Chief Economist & Mr Sri Karthik, Banking Analyst, Investec India to understand what to expect next in the global financial markets and its impact on India with

Investec India Auto Series Expert Speak with Andrew Schultz, SA Strategiest

We hosted Andrew Schultz from our South Africa office yesterday for an on the ground perspective on the Nigerian economy. Andrew expects the near term to remain volatile (dollar crunch, inflation spike) until the general elections (to be held in Feb’23). This shouldn’t hurt demand though, as revenues of FMCG companies reveal resilient demand momentum, and improvement in dollar availability can spur an uptick in demand for imported products (like 2Wers). Long term, implementation of structural reforms such as setting up of oil refineries, increase in finance penetration are important for the Nigerian economy. For 2Wer stocks under our coverage as highlighted in our earlier note (Exports facing speed bump) near-term volumes could be under pressure, but the long-term growth story remains intact.

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